"All that is Gold does not glitter, not all those who wander are lost"

It´s always the right time to quote Tolkien, especially when things get interesting. As I speculated last couple of weeks, this IS an interesting autumn...let´s try not get lost.

As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

Last two weeks triggered 19 signals in 11 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

I have 8 indices in my trading universe, 6 of them generated short signals, HSI is already within a downtrend, and Nikkei also had a massive drop and isn´t exactly a recommended buy (by ichimoku standards) at the moment. Looks like the DJ Transporter this time was right as a leading indicator, and looking at it´s chart doesn´t show a bright future for longs. If you can short the indices- this is the time to do so. Downtrends are established, the signals are there. All indices fell through their Kumos like the proverbial hot knife through butter, usually the lower/upper bounds of Kumo serve as kind of resistance- not this time.

Some good trends can be found among agricultural commodities: check Coffee and Sugar (see last weeks overview). US Soybeans might be a false signal, the Kumo at the moment is so thin that it does need only minor movements to trigger a breakout.

Looking at currency pairs... nothing to analyze at the moment. Technically EUR/JPY is still within uptrend, but if it does not rise next week, this uptrend will be spoiled by Chikou falling below price (which is not good from a trendfollowing perspective: it means current price is lower than 26 days ago).

For the complete picture, look at last weeks analysis and compare to this week, for all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!

All STRONG signals of the 41st week 2018, ordered by symbols:
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| date       | symbol   | name               | type  | amp_info          | price_quote  |
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| 2018-10-08 | Coffee   | Senkou Cross       | long  | 2018-11-13        | 111.850000   |
| 2018-10-11 | Copper   | Kumo Breakout      | long  | from falling Kumo | 2.797000     |
| 2018-10-09 | Copper   | Kumo Breakout      | long  | from falling Kumo | 2.795000     |
| 2018-10-09 | DAX      | Tenkan/Kijun Cross | short | Death X           | 11977.220000 |
| 2018-10-11 | DJI      | Kumo Breakout      | short | from rising Kumo  | 25052.830000 |
| 2018-10-10 | DJTransp | Senkou Cross       | short | 2018-11-15        | 10550.900000 |
| 2018-10-10 | DJTransp | Kumo Breakout      | short | from rising Kumo  | 10550.900000 |
| 2018-10-11 | Gold     | Kijun Cross        | long  | Golden X          | 1223.500000  |
| 2018-10-11 | Gold     | Kumo Breakout      | long  | from falling Kumo | 1223.500000  |
| 2018-10-08 | Gold     | Kumo Breakout      | short | from falling Kumo | 1184.400000  |
| 2018-10-08 | Gold     | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X           | 1184.400000  |
| 2018-10-11 | SMI      | Senkou Cross       | short | 2018-11-16        | 8639.200000  |
| 2018-10-11 | SMI      | Kumo Breakout      | short | from rising Kumo  | 8639.200000  |
| 2018-10-12 | Soybeans | Kumo Breakout      | long  | from falling Kumo | 867.500000   |
| 2018-10-10 | SPX      | Senkou Cross       | short | 2018-11-15        | 2785.680000  |
| 2018-10-10 | SPX      | Kumo Breakout      | short | from rising Kumo  | 2785.680000  |
| 2018-10-10 | STOXX50E | Tenkan/Kijun Cross | short | Death X           | 3266.900000  |
| 2018-10-10 | Sugar    | Tenkan/Kijun Cross | long  | Golden X          | 12.850000    |
| 2018-10-10 | Sugar    | Senkou Cross       | long  | 2018-11-15        | 12.850000    |
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+

Below is the gallery for the charts:

  • BuFu_contrastBuFu_contrast
  • Cocoa_contrastCocoa_contrast
  • Coffee_contrastCoffee_contrast
  • Copper_contrastCopper_contrast
  • Cotton_contrastCotton_contrast
  • DAX_contrastDAX_contrast
  • DJI_contrastDJI_contrast
  • DJTransp_contrastDJTransp_contrast
  • EURJPY_contrastEURJPY_contrast
  • EURUSD_contrastEURUSD_contrast
  • Gold_contrastGold_contrast
  • HSI_contrastHSI_contrast
  • N225_contrastN225_contrast
  • OJuice_contrastOJuice_contrast
  • Palladium_contrastPalladium_contrast
  • SMI_contrastSMI_contrast
  • SPX_contrastSPX_contrast
  • STOXX50E_contrastSTOXX50E_contrast
  • Silver_contrastSilver_contrast
  • Soybeans_contrastSoybeans_contrast
  • Sugar_contrastSugar_contrast
  • WTI_contrastWTI_contrast

Simple Image Gallery Extended

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

  • Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
  • ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
  • ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
  • SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
  • SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!

DAX 2018-10-12 11523.81
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-05 from 12586.89 to 12654.36 price 12040.46
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-09 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 11977.22
2018-10-05 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 12111.90
2018-09-28 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 12246.73
     
DJI 2018-10-12 25339.99
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 24834.41 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 24792.23 to 25038.76 price 25995.87
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 25052.83
2018-08-16 Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) Long at 25558.73
2018-07-09 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 24776.59
     
DJTransp 2018-10-12 10489.3
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 10667.8 to 10770.3 price 11367.3
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-10 Senkou Cross (2018-11-15) Short at 10550.9
2018-10-10 Kumo Breakout (2018-11-15) Short at 10550.9
2018-07-26 Senkou Cross (2018-08-31) Long at 10984.9
     
HSI 2018-10-12 25801.5
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-04 from 28503.0 to 29659.5 price 27973.3
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-04 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 26623.9
2018-10-02 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 27126.4
2018-09-06 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 26974.8
     
N225 2018-10-12 22713.0
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-09-03 from 22256.7 to 22425.9 price 22721.5
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 22665.5
2018-09-11 Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) Long at 22665.5
2018-08-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 22799.6
     
STOXX50E 2018-10-12 3194.41
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 3461.64 to 3467.98 price 3295.95
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-10 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 3266.90
2018-10-05 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 3345.51
2018-09-28 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 3399.20
     
SMI 2018-10-12 8660.4
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 8786.4 to 8921.9 price 8818.7
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-11 Senkou Cross (2018-11-16) Short at 8639.2
2018-10-11 Kumo Breakout (2018-11-16) Short at 8639.2
2018-09-20 Senkou Cross (2018-10-26) Long at 9000.8
     
SPX 2018-10-12 2767.13
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 2762.42 to 2795.80 price 2878.05
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-10 Senkou Cross (2018-11-15) Short at 2785.68
2018-10-10 Kumo Breakout (2018-11-15) Short at 2785.68
2018-07-12 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2798.29
     
BuFu 2018-10-12 158.53
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 161.45 to 162.12 price 162.62
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-07 Senkou Cross (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 159.95
     
Cocoa 2018-10-12 2160.00
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 2314.62 to 2460.50 price 2310.00
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-12 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2355.00
2018-07-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 2219.50
2018-06-22 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2508.50
     
Coffee 2018-10-12 116.550
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 110.583 to 115.375 price 97.950
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-08 Senkou Cross (2018-11-13) Long at 111.850
2018-10-02 Kumo Breakout (2018-11-13) Long at 107.650
2018-09-24 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 98.500
     
Copper 2018-10-12 2.793
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 2.797 to 2.986 price 2.619
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-11 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2.797
2018-10-09 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2.795
2018-10-03 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2.822
     
Cotton 2018-10-12 78.3600
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 86.8900 to 89.1450 price 81.2900
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-14 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 83.0600
2018-07-20 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Short at 87.1100
2018-08-13 Chikou Cross (2018-07-06) Short at 82.9300
     
Gold 2018-10-12 1218.100
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-09-10 from 1225.175 to 1256.400 price 1200.300
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-11 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 1223.500
2018-10-11 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Long at 1223.500
2018-10-08 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 1184.400
     
OJuice 2018-10-12 144.1
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 162.8 to 165.3 price 156.4
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-16 Senkou Cross (2018-09-24) Short at 154.4
2018-08-13 Kumo Breakout (2018-09-24) Short at 158.5
2018-07-25 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 164.8
     
Palladium 2018-10-12 1060.8
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-11 from 911.8 to 939.7 price 980.9
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-29 Senkou Cross (2018-10-01) Long at 958.5
2018-08-29 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-01) Long at 958.5
2018-08-27 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 941.9
     
Silver 2018-10-12 14.630
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 16.535 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-09-12 from 15.327 to 16.125 price 14.192
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-26 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 14.305
2018-06-26 Senkou Cross (Death X) Short at 16.275
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 16.308
     
Soybeans 2018-10-12 867.5
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-09-12 from 873.2 to 930.1 price 838.5
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-12 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 867.5
2018-10-05 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 869.2
2018-10-02 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 866.8
     
Sugar 2018-10-12 13.07
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 11.14 to 11.71 price 10.80
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-10 Senkou Cross (2018-11-15) Long at 12.85
2018-10-10 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (2018-11-15) Long at 12.85
2018-10-01 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 11.61
     
WTI 2018-10-12 71.340
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 69.430 to 69.885 price 67.770
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-19 Senkou Cross (2018-10-25) Long at 71.120
2018-09-18 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-25) Long at 69.850
2018-09-12 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 70.370
     
EURJPY 2018-10-12 129.740
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-12 from 127.960 to 128.580 price 129.360
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-13 Senkou Cross (2018-10-15) Long at 130.840
2018-09-11 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-15) Long at 129.570
2018-09-06 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 128.720
     
EURUSD 2018-10-12 1.15630
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span below kumo at 1.16520
Kumo on 2018-09-06 from 1.16730 to 1.16805 price 1.16220
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-03 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 1.14780
2018-09-17 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 1.16830
2018-09-13 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 1.16900
     

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