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Category: Ichimoku weekly overview

"He´s dead Jim!"

Is he? Major Indices at the moment do not look like they want to continue their uptrends much more... but if the patient really is dead remains to be seen. We might get some interesting end-of-year volatility- on both sides. In hindsight everyone is smarter...

As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

Last two weeks triggered 15 signals in 10 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

Last week clarified the picture a bit for the indices, and from my perspective it does not look very bullish... DAX now is back within an downtrend, both DJI and SPX had a correction, with DJ Transportation index indicating that correction might not be over (see last week´s analysis). By ichimoku definition DJI is still within a valid uptrend (while SPX is not, chikou is below price- which means nothing more than todays price is lower than the price 26 days before), but be careful. Chinese Hang Seng is within an downtrend since months. The only market that still looks good is Nikkei...

EUR/USD corrected most of its last upmove, no clear direction at the moment. Gold, despite what I can read everywhere ("ripe for an upmove", "very cheap at this level", "blablabla buy"), is still going sideways. I won´t buy until I see a clear long signal.

If you are able to trade Futures, have a look at commodities! Sugar ended its downtrend spectacularly, Coffee is on a good way back to an uptrend, Cotton goes down using the stairs, Crude Oil on the other hand has upside momentum en masse. Just to name a few markets, for the complete overview, look at last weeks analysis and compare to this week, for all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!

All STRONG signals of the 40th week 2018, ordered by symbols:
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| date       | symbol   | name               | type  | amp_info          | price_quote  |
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| 2018-10-02 | Coffee   | Kumo Breakout      | long  | from falling Kumo | 107.650000   |
| 2018-10-03 | Copper   | Kumo Breakout      | long  | from falling Kumo | 2.822000     |
| 2018-10-05 | DAX      | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X           | 12111.900000 |
| 2018-10-03 | EURUSD   | Kumo Breakout      | short | from falling Kumo | 1.147800     |
| 2018-10-04 | Gold     | Kumo Breakout      | short | from falling Kumo | 1197.200000  |
| 2018-10-04 | Gold     | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X           | 1197.200000  |
| 2018-10-03 | Gold     | Tenkan/Kijun Cross | short | Death X           | 1198.300000  |
| 2018-10-02 | HSI      | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X           | 27126.400000 |
| 2018-10-04 | HSI      | Tenkan/Kijun Cross | short | Death X           | 26623.900000 |
| 2018-10-03 | SMI      | Chikou Cross       | long  | 2018-08-28        | 9175.200000  |
| 2018-10-02 | Soybeans | Kumo Breakout      | long  | from rising Kumo  | 866.800000   |
| 2018-10-05 | Soybeans | Kumo Breakout      | long  | from falling Kumo | 869.200000   |
| 2018-10-05 | STOXX50E | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X           | 3345.510000  |
| 2018-10-01 | Sugar    | Kumo Breakout      | long  | from falling Kumo | 11.610000    |
| 2018-10-01 | Sugar    | Kijun Cross        | long  | Golden X          | 11.610000    |
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+

Below is the gallery for the charts:

Simple Image Gallery Extended

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!

DAX 2018-10-05 12111.90
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-29 from 12517.74 to 12654.36 price 12561.68
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-05 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 12111.90
2018-09-28 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Short at 12246.73
2018-08-30 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 12494.24
     
DJI 2018-10-05 26447.05
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-29 from 24700.02 to 24843.34 price 26124.57
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-16 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 25558.73
2018-07-09 Kumo Breakout (Golden X) Long at 24776.59
2018-07-09 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 24776.59
     
DJTransp 2018-10-05 11206.8
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-29 from 10632.7 to 10660.2 price 11395.9
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-26 Senkou Cross (2018-08-31) Long at 10984.9
2018-07-16 Kumo Breakout (2018-08-31) Short at 10435.5
2018-07-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 10442.5
     
HSI 2018-10-05 26572.6
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-28 from 28746.3 to 29669.2 price 28351.6
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-04 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 26623.9
2018-10-02 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 27126.4
2018-09-06 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 26974.8
     
N225 2018-10-05 23821.5
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-28 from 22256.7 to 22276.5 price 22813.5
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 22665.5
2018-09-11 Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) Long at 22665.5
2018-08-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 22799.6
     
STOXX50E 2018-10-05 3345.51
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-30 from 3439.69 to 3468.52 price 3430.99
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-05 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 3345.51
2018-09-28 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Short at 3399.20
2018-09-27 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 3449.79
     
SMI 2018-10-05 9042.1
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span above kumo at 8973.9
Kumo on 2018-08-30 from 8699.5 to 8778.2 price 9042.1
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-20 Senkou Cross (2018-10-26) Long at 9000.8
2018-09-20 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-26) Long at 9000.8
2018-09-20 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 9000.8
     
SPX 2018-10-05 2885.57
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-29 from 2753.40 to 2783.38 price 2914.04
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-12 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2798.29
2018-07-06 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2759.82
2018-07-05 Chikou Cross (2018-05-29) Long at 2736.61
     
BuFu 2018-10-05 157.61
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-30 from 160.88 to 162.46 price 162.98
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-07 Senkou Cross (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 159.95
     
Cocoa 2018-10-05 2024.00
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-29 from 2419.75 to 2548.75 price 2336.00
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-12 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2355.00
2018-07-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 2219.50
2018-06-22 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2508.50
     
Coffee 2018-10-05 108.950
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-29 from 110.183 to 115.375 price 98.650
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-02 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 107.650
2018-09-24 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 98.500
2018-07-31 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 109.900
     
Copper 2018-10-05 2.751
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 3.069 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-08-31 from 2.800 to 2.986 price 2.649
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-03 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2.822
2018-09-14 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 2.627
2018-09-04 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2.583
     
Cotton 2018-10-05 76.0900
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-29 from 86.4350 to 89.1450 price 82.7600
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-14 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 83.0600
2018-07-20 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Short at 87.1100
2018-08-13 Chikou Cross (2018-07-06) Short at 82.9300
     
Gold 2018-10-05 1201.200
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 1301.500 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-09-04 from 1230.025 to 1259.700 price 1192.700
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-04 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 1197.200
2018-10-04 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 1197.200
2018-10-03 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1198.300
     
OJuice 2018-10-05 143.2
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-29 from 162.8 to 165.3 price 154.5
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-16 Senkou Cross (2018-09-24) Short at 154.4
2018-08-13 Kumo Breakout (2018-09-24) Short at 158.5
2018-07-25 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 164.8
     
Palladium 2018-10-05 1063.5
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-03 from 901.5 to 939.7 price 966.5
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-29 Senkou Cross (2018-10-01) Long at 958.5
2018-08-29 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-01) Long at 958.5
2018-08-27 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 941.9
     
Silver 2018-10-05 14.680
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 16.905 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-09-05 from 15.536 to 16.210 price 14.118
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-26 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 14.305
2018-06-26 Senkou Cross (Death X) Short at 16.275
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 16.308
     
Soybeans 2018-10-05 869.2
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-09-05 from 868.8 to 930.8 price 838.8
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-05 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 869.2
2018-10-02 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 866.8
2018-09-04 Senkou Cross (2018-10-04) Short at 845.0
     
Sugar 2018-10-05 12.63
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-29 from 11.36 to 11.91 price 10.37
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-01 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 11.61
2018-10-01 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Long at 11.61
2018-09-26 Senkou Cross (2018-11-01) Short at 9.90
     
WTI 2018-10-05 74.340
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-31 from 69.430 to 69.777 price 69.800
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-19 Senkou Cross (2018-10-25) Long at 71.120
2018-09-18 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-25) Long at 69.850
2018-09-12 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 70.370
     
EURJPY 2018-10-05 131.060
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-05 from 129.325 to 130.027 price 129.710
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-13 Senkou Cross (2018-10-16) Long at 130.840
2018-09-11 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-16) Long at 129.570
2018-09-06 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 128.720
     
EURUSD 2018-10-05 1.15240
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-30 from 1.16568 to 1.17235 price 1.16710
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-03 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 1.14780
2018-09-17 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 1.16830
2018-09-13 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 1.16900
     

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