"There´s always a bigger fish."

This one is not only a good T-Shirt slogan, but also applies to trading. Are you really smarter and better equipped than your competitors? Are you on the right side of the Bell Curve (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution#Standard_deviation_and_coverage)?

As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

Last two weeks triggered 10 signals in 7 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

Markets did not change that much, so I won't repeat myself over and over again. Instead I refer to last week´s overview. What is different? Not that much, Eurozone is regaining some (little) ground but still in bearish territory, US indices recovering from a little pullback (and are still within long trends). Palladium looks still very strong.
In general, this week´s signals don't look so convincing- but that is just my gut feeling. Trading an automated system is so easy, as there is no gut interface. Get a signal, trade it. For the complete overview, look at last weeks analysis and compare to this week, for all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!
 
 All STRONG signals of the 37th week 2018, ordered by symbols:
+------------+--------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| date       | symbol | name          | type  | amp_info          | price_quote  |
+------------+--------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| 2018-09-12 | Cocoa  | Kumo Breakout | long  | from falling Kumo |  2355.000000 |
| 2018-09-14 | Copper | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X           |     2.627000 |
| 2018-09-13 | EURJPY | Senkou Cross  | long  | 2018-10-19        |   130.840000 |
| 2018-09-11 | EURJPY | Kumo Breakout | long  | from falling Kumo |   129.570000 |
| 2018-09-13 | EURUSD | Kumo Breakout | long  | from falling Kumo |     1.169000 |
| 2018-09-11 | N225   | Kumo Breakout | long  | from rising Kumo  | 22665.500000 |
| 2018-09-11 | N225   | Kijun Cross   | long  | Golden X          | 22665.500000 |
| 2018-09-13 | N225   | Chikou Cross  | long  | 2018-08-08        | 22829.000000 |
| 2018-09-13 | Sugar  | Kumo Breakout | long  | from falling Kumo |    11.680000 |
| 2018-09-12 | WTI    | Kumo Breakout | long  | from rising Kumo  |    70.370000 |
+------------+--------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+

Below is the gallery for the charts:

  • BuFu_lightBuFu_light
  • Cocoa_lightCocoa_light
  • Coffee_lightCoffee_light
  • Copper_lightCopper_light
  • Cotton_lightCotton_light
  • DAX_lightDAX_light
  • DJI_lightDJI_light
  • DJTransp_lightDJTransp_light
  • EURJPY_lightEURJPY_light
  • EURUSD_lightEURUSD_light
  • Gold_lightGold_light
  • HSI_lightHSI_light
  • N225_lightN225_light
  • OJuice_lightOJuice_light
  • Palladium_lightPalladium_light
  • SMI_lightSMI_light
  • SPX_lightSPX_light
  • STOXX50E_lightSTOXX50E_light
  • Silver_lightSilver_light
  • Soybeans_lightSoybeans_light
  • Sugar_lightSugar_light
  • WTI_lightWTI_light

Simple Image Gallery Extended

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

  • Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
  • ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
  • ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
  • SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
  • SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!

DAX 2018-09-14 12124.33
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-09 from 12489.65 to 12654.36 price 12676.11
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-30 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 12494.24
2018-08-30 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 12494.24
2018-08-10 Senkou Cross (2018-09-17) Short at 12424.35
     
DJI 2018-09-14 26154.67
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-08 from 24467.07 to 24550.50 price 25583.75
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-16 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 25558.73
2018-07-09 Kumo Breakout (Golden X) Long at 24776.59
2018-07-09 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 24776.59
     
DJTransp 2018-09-14 11570.8
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-08 from 10604.6 to 10611.8 price 11174.9
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-26 Senkou Cross (2018-08-31) Long at 10984.9
2018-07-16 Kumo Breakout (2018-08-31) Short at 10435.5
2018-07-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 10442.5
     
HSI 2018-09-14 27286.4
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-09 from 29346.1 to 29791.5 price 28607.3
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-06 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 26974.8
2018-09-05 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 27243.8
2018-09-03 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 27712.5
     
N225 2018-09-14 23101.5
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-09 from 22235.7 to 22312.5 price 22598.4
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 22665.5
2018-09-11 Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) Long at 22665.5
2018-08-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 22799.6
     
STOXX50E 2018-09-14 3344.63
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-09 from 3415.99 to 3468.52 price 3494.13
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-30 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 3430.99
2018-08-30 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 3430.99
2018-08-15 Senkou Cross (2018-09-20) Short at 3359.08
     
SMI 2018-09-14 8970.0
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 8806.6 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-08-09 from 8531.7 to 8699.4 price 9145.7
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-30 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 9042.1
2018-08-27 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 9098.7
2018-08-16 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 8997.7
     
SPX 2018-09-14 2904.98
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-08 from 2693.04 to 2733.78 price 2857.70
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-12 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2798.29
2018-07-06 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2759.82
2018-07-05 Chikou Cross (2018-05-29) Long at 2736.61
     
BuFu 2018-09-14 159.17
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-09 from 160.79 to 161.77 price 162.50
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-07 Senkou Cross (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 159.95
     
Cocoa 2018-09-14 2219.00
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-08 from 2447.12 to 2595.75 price 2111.00
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-12 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2355.00
2018-07-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 2219.50
2018-06-22 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2508.50
     
Coffee 2018-09-14 95.450
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-08 from 114.013 to 116.300 price 107.850
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-31 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 109.900
2018-07-26 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 109.550
2018-08-13 Chikou Cross (2018-07-06) Short at 106.250
     
Copper 2018-09-14 2.627
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-13 from 2.967 to 3.043 price 2.722
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-14 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2.627
2018-09-04 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2.583
2018-08-30 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2.691
     
Cotton 2018-09-14 81.8400
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-08 from 87.3700 to 89.0000 price 87.1900
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-14 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 83.0600
2018-07-20 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Short at 87.1100
2018-08-13 Chikou Cross (2018-07-06) Short at 82.9300
     
Gold 2018-09-14 1198.300
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-13 from 1261.025 to 1278.450 price 1191.300
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-26 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1256.600
2018-06-15 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1274.600
2018-06-11 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1298.900
     
OJuice 2018-09-14 153.5
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-08 from 157.0 to 160.7 price 164.2
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-16 Senkou Cross (2018-09-24) Short at 154.4
2018-08-13 Kumo Breakout (2018-09-24) Short at 158.5
2018-07-25 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 164.8
     
Palladium 2018-09-14 998.8
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-10 from 959.1 to 975.7 price 901.1
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-29 Senkou Cross (2018-10-03) Long at 958.5
2018-08-29 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-03) Long at 958.5
2018-08-27 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 941.9
     
Silver 2018-09-14 14.042
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 16.062 to 16.497 price 14.421
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-26 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Short at 16.275
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (2018-07-26) Short at 16.308
2018-06-19 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 16.303
     
Soybeans 2018-09-14 830.5
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-10 from 902.2 to 952.2 price 850.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-04 Senkou Cross (2018-10-09) Short at 845.0
2018-08-10 Kijun Cross (2018-10-09) Short at 850.0
2018-08-27 Chikou Cross (2018-07-22) Short at 847.2
     
Sugar 2018-09-14 11.16
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 11.14 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-08-08 from 11.83 to 12.08 price 10.81
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-13 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 11.68
2018-07-10 Senkou Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 11.41
2018-07-02 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 11.56
     
WTI 2018-09-14 68.990
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-10 from 69.430 to 70.462 price 67.630
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-12 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 70.370
2018-09-06 Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) Short at 67.770
2018-08-30 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 70.250
     
EURJPY 2018-09-14 130.320
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 128.170 to 129.825 price 125.640
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-13 Senkou Cross (2018-10-19) Long at 130.840
2018-09-11 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-19) Long at 129.570
2018-09-06 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 128.720
     
EURUSD 2018-09-14 1.16300
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-09 from 1.16527 to 1.18245 price 1.15270
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-13 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 1.16900
2018-08-31 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 1.16010
2018-07-17 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1.16610
     

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