"Vacation is ALWAYS 2 weeks too short"

After 4 weeks of hiatus, again a new weekly overview. Currently I am really busy with my mainjob, and still trying to come up with v0.4.0- this one is giving me a tough time since I am really digging in the deepest and most central parts of the program.

As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

Last two weeks triggered 10 signals in 6 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

Gold and Silver are still deep within their established downtrends, however for Gold it seems to have lost some momentum (not so for Silver). Palladium on the other hand, is back within an uptrend, that could be confirmed by chikou during the next couple of days. US indices are within textbook-examples of uptrends, while German DAX now is clearly falling, as does most of the Eurozone (just have a look at Eurostoxx). Nothing new from the currencies: EUR/JPY is moving with high volatility, causing a lot of false signals. EUR/USD on the other hand is still within a sideways range, a fake breakout in mid-August has been fully compensated by now. For all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!
 
 All STRONG signals of the 36th week 2018, ordered by symbols:
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
| date       | symbol   | name               | type  | amp_info         | price_quote  |
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
| 2018-09-07 | BuFu     | Senkou Cross       | short | 2018-10-15       |   159.950000 |
| 2018-09-07 | BuFu     | Kumo Breakout      | short | from rising Kumo |   159.950000 |
| 2018-09-07 | BuFu     | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X          |   159.950000 |
| 2018-09-04 | Copper   | Tenkan/Kijun Cross | short | Death X          |     2.583000 |
| 2018-09-06 | EURJPY   | Kumo Breakout      | short | from rising Kumo |   128.720000 |
| 2018-09-06 | HSI      | Tenkan/Kijun Cross | short | Death X          | 26974.800000 |
| 2018-09-05 | HSI      | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X          | 27243.800000 |
| 2018-09-03 | HSI      | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X          | 27712.500000 |
| 2018-09-04 | Soybeans | Senkou Cross       | short | 2018-10-10       |   845.000000 |
| 2018-09-06 | WTI      | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X          |    67.770000 |
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+------------------+--------------+

Below is the gallery for the charts:

  • BuFu_lightBuFu_light
  • Cocoa_lightCocoa_light
  • Coffee_lightCoffee_light
  • Copper_lightCopper_light
  • Cotton_lightCotton_light
  • DAX_lightDAX_light
  • DJI_lightDJI_light
  • DJTransp_lightDJTransp_light
  • EURJPY_lightEURJPY_light
  • EURUSD_lightEURUSD_light
  • Gold_lightGold_light
  • HSI_lightHSI_light
  • N225_lightN225_light
  • OJuice_lightOJuice_light
  • Palladium_lightPalladium_light
  • SMI_lightSMI_light
  • SPX_lightSPX_light
  • STOXX50E_lightSTOXX50E_light
  • Silver_lightSilver_light
  • Soybeans_lightSoybeans_light
  • Sugar_lightSugar_light
  • WTI_lightWTI_light

Simple Image Gallery Extended

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

  • Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
  • ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
  • ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
  • SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
  • SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!

DAX 2018-09-07 11959.63
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-02 from 12647.46 to 12664.59 price 12546.33
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-30 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 12494.24
2018-08-30 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 12494.24
2018-08-10 Senkou Cross (2018-09-17) Short at 12424.35
     
DJI 2018-09-07 25916.54
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-01 from 24467.07 to 24733.42 price 25333.82
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-16 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 25558.73
2018-07-09 Kumo Breakout (Golden X) Long at 24776.59
2018-07-09 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 24776.59
     
DJTransp 2018-09-07 11347.5
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-01 from 10604.6 to 10780.0 price 10983.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-26 Senkou Cross (2018-08-31) Long at 10984.9
2018-07-16 Kumo Breakout (2018-08-31) Short at 10435.5
2018-07-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 10442.5
     
HSI 2018-09-07 26973.5
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-02 from 29888.8 to 30048.8 price 27714.6
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-06 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 26974.8
2018-09-05 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 27243.8
2018-09-03 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 27712.5
     
N225 2018-09-07 22313.0
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span below kumo at 21835.5
Kumo on 2018-08-02 from 22320.9 to 22491.5 price 22512.5
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 22799.6
2018-08-17 Kumo Breakout (Golden X) Long at 22270.4
2018-08-14 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 22356.1
     
STOXX50E 2018-09-07 3293.36
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-02 from 3450.75 to 3468.52 price 3469.21
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-30 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 3430.99
2018-08-30 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 3430.99
2018-08-15 Senkou Cross (2018-09-20) Short at 3359.08
     
SMI 2018-09-07 8843.1
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 8726.5 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-08-02 from 8630.9 to 8725.0 price 9155.6
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-30 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 9042.1
2018-08-27 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 9098.7
2018-08-16 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 8997.7
     
SPX 2018-09-07 2871.68
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-01 from 2693.04 to 2739.60 price 2813.36
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-12 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2798.29
2018-07-06 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2759.82
2018-07-05 Chikou Cross (2018-05-29) Long at 2736.61
     
BuFu 2018-09-07 159.95
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-02 from 160.79 to 161.62 price 161.26
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-07 Senkou Cross (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 159.95
     
Cocoa 2018-09-07 2266.00
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 2691.50 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-08-01 from 2475.62 to 2595.75 price 2083.50
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2219.50
2018-06-22 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2508.50
2018-07-18 Chikou Cross (2018-06-11) Short at 2335.50
     
Coffee 2018-09-07 102.500
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-01 from 116.550 to 118.475 price 108.050
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-31 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 109.900
2018-07-26 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 109.550
2018-08-13 Chikou Cross (2018-07-06) Short at 106.250
     
Copper 2018-09-07 2.603
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-06 from 3.053 to 3.116 price 2.721
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-04 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2.583
2018-08-30 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2.691
2018-06-21 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Short at 3.025
     
Cotton 2018-09-07 82.0000
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-01 from 89.0000 to 89.5475 price 88.3400
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-14 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 83.0600
2018-07-20 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Short at 87.1100
2018-08-13 Chikou Cross (2018-07-06) Short at 82.9300
     
Gold 2018-09-07 1193.600
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-03 from 1269.775 to 1284.750 price 1214.200
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-26 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1256.600
2018-06-15 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1274.600
2018-06-11 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1298.900
     
OJuice 2018-09-07 159.6
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-01 from 155.7 to 160.3 price 169.1
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-16 Senkou Cross (2018-09-24) Short at 154.4
2018-08-13 Kumo Breakout (2018-09-24) Short at 158.5
2018-07-25 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 164.8
     
Palladium 2018-09-07 965.8
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-03 from 962.5 to 975.7 price 907.9
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-29 Senkou Cross (2018-10-03) Long at 958.5
2018-08-29 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-03) Long at 958.5
2018-08-27 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 941.9
     
Silver 2018-09-07 14.067
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-08 from 16.235 to 16.507 price 15.376
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-26 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Short at 16.275
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (2018-07-26) Short at 16.308
2018-06-19 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 16.303
     
Soybeans 2018-09-07 845.0
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-02 from 916.3 to 955.0 price 888.2
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-04 Senkou Cross (2018-10-10) Short at 845.0
2018-08-10 Kijun Cross (2018-10-10) Short at 850.0
2018-08-27 Chikou Cross (2018-07-22) Short at 847.2
     
Sugar 2018-09-07 11.01
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-01 from 11.83 to 12.17 price 10.48
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-10 Senkou Cross (2018-08-15) Short at 11.41
2018-07-02 Kumo Breakout (2018-08-15) Short at 11.56
2018-06-26 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 12.12
     
WTI 2018-09-07 67.750
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-03 from 69.025 to 69.212 price 68.490
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-06 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 67.770
2018-08-30 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Long at 70.250
2018-08-10 Senkou Cross (2018-09-14) Short at 67.630
     
EURJPY 2018-09-07 128.320
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-08 from 128.010 to 128.740 price 128.870
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-06 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 128.720
2018-08-31 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 128.870
2018-08-29 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 130.750
     
EURUSD 2018-09-07 1.15530
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-02 from 1.16480 to 1.19000 price 1.15840
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-31 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 1.16010
2018-07-17 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 1.16610
2018-07-11 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 1.16740
     

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