"Wanna have sun in the winter,
Wanna have snow in the summer"

It remains incredibly hot and dry back here in Germany, and markets seem to enter their siesta as well.

As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

Last two weeks triggered 7 signals in 6 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

Last week the major indices diverged somewhat: while the ones within the eurozone corrected, the US indices look pretty strong (as does the Swiss SMI). A look at the EUR/USD chart shows a 2 month period of going sidewaysm while EUR/JPY at least somehow tries to move. Chinese Hang Seng remains a candidate for short. Gold is still in the elevator going downwards, Silver on the other hand seems to take a break from its downtrend. For all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!
 All STRONG signals of the 31st week 2018, ordered by symbols:

+------------+-----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
| date       | symbol    | name          | type  | amp_info         | price_quote  |
+------------+-----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
| 2018-07-31 | Coffee    | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X          |   109.900000 |
| 2018-07-31 | EURJPY    | Kijun Cross   | long  | Golden X         |   130.800000 |
| 2018-08-01 | HSI       | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X          | 28340.700000 |
| 2018-08-03 | Palladium | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X          |   907.900000 |
| 2018-08-02 | STOXX50E  | Senkou Cross  | long  | 2018-09-07       |  3469.210000 |
| 2018-08-01 | WTI       | Kumo Breakout | short | from rising Kumo |    67.660000 |
| 2018-08-03 | WTI       | Kumo Breakout | short | from rising Kumo |    68.490000 |
+------------+-----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+

Below is the gallery for the charts:

  • BuFu_lightBuFu_light
  • Cocoa_lightCocoa_light
  • Coffee_lightCoffee_light
  • Copper_lightCopper_light
  • Cotton_lightCotton_light
  • DAX_lightDAX_light
  • DJI_lightDJI_light
  • DJTransp_lightDJTransp_light
  • EURJPY_lightEURJPY_light
  • EURUSD_lightEURUSD_light
  • Gold_lightGold_light
  • HSI_lightHSI_light
  • N225_lightN225_light
  • OJuice_lightOJuice_light
  • Palladium_lightPalladium_light
  • SMI_lightSMI_light
  • SPX_lightSPX_light
  • STOXX50E_lightSTOXX50E_light
  • Silver_lightSilver_light
  • Soybeans_lightSoybeans_light
  • Sugar_lightSugar_light
  • WTI_lightWTI_light

Simple Image Gallery Extended

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

  • Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
  • ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
  • ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
  • SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
  • SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!

DAX 2018-08-03 12615.76
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 12418.39 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-06-28 from 12465.46 to 12909.79 price 12177.23
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-27 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 12860.40
2018-07-25 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 12579.33
2018-07-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 12417.13
     
DJI 2018-08-03 25462.58
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 24396.84 to 24507.04 price 24117.59
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-09 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 24776.59
2018-07-09 Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) Long at 24776.59
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 24252.80
     
DJTransp 2018-08-03 11097.0
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 10473.4 to 10580.7 price 10331.6
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-26 Senkou Cross (2018-08-31) Long at 10984.9
2018-07-16 Kumo Breakout (2018-08-31) Short at 10435.5
2018-07-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 10442.5
     
HSI 2018-08-03 27676.3
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 30748.4 to 30775.2 price 28356.3
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-01 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 28340.7
2018-07-26 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 28781.1
2018-06-19 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Short at 29468.2
     
N225 2018-08-03 22525.2
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 21698.9 to 22527.7 price 22271.8
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-26 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 22586.9
2018-07-05 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 21547.0
2018-06-12 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 22878.3
     
STOXX50E 2018-08-03 3482.40
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-06-28 from 3429.03 to 3546.22 price 3365.52
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-02 Senkou Cross (2018-09-07) Long at 3469.21
2018-07-26 Kumo Breakout (2018-09-07) Long at 3509.26
2018-07-23 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 3454.05
     
SMI 2018-08-03 9158.0
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 8763.5 to 8913.2 price 8504.5
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-18 Senkou Cross (2018-08-24) Long at 8938.1
2018-07-12 Kumo Breakout (2018-08-24) Long at 8818.2
2018-07-09 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 8759.9
     
SPX 2018-08-03 2840.35
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 2677.85 to 2688.24 price 2699.63
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-12 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2798.29
2018-07-06 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2759.82
2018-07-05 Chikou Cross (2018-05-29) Long at 2736.61
     
BuFu 2018-08-03 162.05
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-06-28 from 158.36 to 158.68 price 162.46
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-25 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 162.37
2018-06-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 162.30
2018-06-21 Senkou Cross (2018-07-27) Long at 162.15
     
Cocoa 2018-08-03 2039.50
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 2678.25 to 2741.12 price 2369.50
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2219.50
2018-06-22 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2508.50
2018-07-18 Chikou Cross (2018-06-11) Short at 2335.50
     
Coffee 2018-08-03 107.750
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 117.550 to 118.585 price 114.300
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-31 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 109.900
2018-07-26 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 109.550
2018-06-15 Senkou Cross (2018-07-24) Short at 115.200
     
Copper 2018-08-03 2.753
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-29 from 3.055 to 3.081 price 2.951
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-21 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Short at 3.025
2018-06-19 Kumo Breakout (2018-07-26) Short at 3.046
2018-06-05 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 3.191
     
Cotton 2018-08-03 88.1700
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 83.6750 to 85.5800 price 85.8400
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-20 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 87.1100
2018-07-02 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 82.9700
2018-06-22 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 85.8100
     
Gold 2018-08-03 1214.200
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-29 from 1301.125 to 1327.300 price 1251.300
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-26 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1256.600
2018-06-15 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1274.600
2018-06-11 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1298.900
     
OJuice 2018-08-03 168.9
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 153.5 to 162.4 price 157.4
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-25 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 164.8
2018-07-06 Chikou Cross (Golden X) Long at 168.4
2018-04-26 Senkou Cross (2018-06-04) Long at 152.1
     
Palladium 2018-08-03 907.9
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-07-01 from 969.5 to 974.9 price 950.4
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-03 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 907.9
2018-06-25 Senkou Cross (Death X) Short at 935.4
2018-06-19 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 960.3
     
Silver 2018-08-03 15.406
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-07-04 from 16.429 to 16.600 price 16.130
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-26 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Short at 16.275
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (2018-07-26) Short at 16.308
2018-06-19 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 16.303
     
Soybeans 2018-08-03 892.5
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-06-28 from 1023.1 to 1025.5 price 869.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-06 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 995.5
2018-06-04 Senkou Cross (Death X) Short at 1002.2
2018-06-04 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1002.2
     
Sugar 2018-08-03 10.85
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-27 from 11.58 to 11.90 price 11.72
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-10 Senkou Cross (2018-08-15) Short at 11.41
2018-07-02 Kumo Breakout (2018-08-15) Short at 11.56
2018-06-26 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 12.12
     
WTI 2018-08-03 68.490
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-06-29 from 67.360 to 69.360 price 74.150
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-03 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 68.490
2018-08-01 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 67.660
2018-07-24 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 68.520
     
EURJPY 2018-08-03 128.710
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-07-04 from 127.503 to 129.065 price 128.780
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-31 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 130.800
2018-07-05 Kumo Breakout (Golden X) Long at 129.330
2018-06-29 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 129.330
     
EURUSD 2018-08-03 1.15670
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-28 from 1.19105 to 1.20770 price 1.15690
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-17 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1.16610
2018-07-11 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Short at 1.16740
2018-07-11 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1.16740
     

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