A personal note before I start this week´s overview: Because I am in the process of moving into a new home at the moment, there might be a 2 or even 3 week pause with updates on my blog- until I am fully operational again. However, I hope you still find this little blog useful and continue visiting me :)

As usual the weather backcast contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

This year is already half way through- week 27 Just finished. Looks like markets are starting their summer vacations, the number of signals slightly dropped: 11 signals in 10 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe) were triggered.

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

Last week the downward moves of the major indices took a break. SPX even managed to generate 2 long signals, but whether this is just a small stop for breathing or a general reversal, it is way too early to tell. About currencies: I´d still call EUR/USD and EUR/JPY movement a sideways range, and advise to be careful at this moment. Gold seems to continue it´s stable downtrend, while Silver continues to behave erratically. For all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!
 

All STRONG signals of the 27th week 2018, ordered by symbols:

+------------+----------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| date       | symbol   | name          | type  | amp_info          | price_quote  |
+------------+----------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| 2018-07-05 | BuFu     | Chikou Cross  | long  | 2018-05-30        |   162.700000 |
| 2018-07-02 | Cotton   | Kumo Breakout | short | from rising Kumo  |    82.970000 |
| 2018-07-06 | DJTransp | Senkou Cross  | short | 2018-08-13        | 10473.900000 |
| 2018-07-05 | EURJPY   | Kumo Breakout | long  | from falling Kumo |   129.330000 |
| 2018-07-02 | EURUSD   | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X           |     1.164100 |
| 2018-07-05 | N225     | Kumo Breakout | short | from rising Kumo  | 21547.000000 |
| 2018-07-06 | OJuice   | Chikou Cross  | long  | 2018-05-30        |   168.400000 |
| 2018-07-02 | SMI      | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X           |  8529.600000 |
| 2018-07-05 | SPX      | Chikou Cross  | long  | 2018-05-29        |  2736.610000 |
| 2018-07-06 | SPX      | Kijun Cross   | long  | Golden X          |  2759.820000 |
| 2018-07-02 | Sugar    | Kumo Breakout | short | from falling Kumo |    11.560000 |
+------------+----------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+

Below is the gallery for the charts:

  • BuFu_lightBuFu_light
  • Cocoa_lightCocoa_light
  • Coffee_lightCoffee_light
  • Copper_lightCopper_light
  • Cotton_lightCotton_light
  • DAX_lightDAX_light
  • DJI_lightDJI_light
  • DJTransp_lightDJTransp_light
  • EURJPY_lightEURJPY_light
  • EURUSD_lightEURUSD_light
  • Gold_lightGold_light
  • HSI_lightHSI_light
  • N225_lightN225_light
  • OJuice_lightOJuice_light
  • Palladium_lightPalladium_light
  • SMI_lightSMI_light
  • SPX_lightSPX_light
  • STOXX50E_lightSTOXX50E_light
  • Silver_lightSilver_light
  • Soybeans_lightSoybeans_light
  • Sugar_lightSugar_light
  • WTI_lightWTI_light

Simple Image Gallery Extended

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

  • Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
  • ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
  • ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
  • SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
  • SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!

DAX 2018-07-06 12496.17
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 12282.77 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-05-31 from 12188.95 to 12315.93 price 12604.89
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-25 Senkou Cross (2018-07-31) Short at 12270.33
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (2018-07-31) Short at 12270.33
2018-06-15 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 13010.55
     
DJI 2018-07-06 24456.48
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 24601.27 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-05-30 from 24346.34 to 24572.43 price 24667.78
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 24252.80
2018-06-01 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 24635.21
2018-05-30 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 24667.78
     
DJTransp 2018-07-06 10473.9
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-05-30 from 10322.8 to 10465.9 price 10918.7
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-06 Senkou Cross (2018-08-13) Short at 10473.9
2018-06-27 Kumo Breakout (2018-08-13) Short at 10331.6
2018-05-14 Senkou Cross (2018-06-20) Long at 10663.2
     
HSI 2018-07-06 28315.6
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-29 from 30625.1 to 31088.6 price 30484.6
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-19 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Short at 29468.2
2018-06-15 Kumo Breakout (2018-07-26) Short at 30309.5
2018-06-08 Senkou Cross (2018-07-18) Long at 30958.2
     
N225 2018-07-06 21788.1
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 21382.6 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-05-31 from 21424.8 to 21652.8 price 22201.8
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-05 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 21547.0
2018-06-12 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) Long at 22878.3
2018-06-05 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 22539.5
     
STOXX50E 2018-07-06 3448.49
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span above kumo at 3369.83
Kumo on 2018-05-31 from 3392.83 to 3436.27 price 3406.65
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 3369.21
2018-06-21 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 3403.51
2018-04-26 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 3506.03
     
SMI 2018-07-06 8697.4
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-05-31 from 8757.1 to 8779.2 price 8457.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-02 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 8529.6
2018-05-31 Senkou Cross (Death X) Short at 8457.0
2018-05-29 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 8637.2
     
SPX 2018-07-06 2759.82
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-30 from 2667.29 to 2668.10 price 2724.01
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-06 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2759.82
2018-07-05 Chikou Cross (Golden X) Long at 2736.61
2018-05-17 Senkou Cross (2018-06-25) Long at 2720.13
     
BuFu 2018-07-06 162.82
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-31 from 158.52 to 158.63 price 162.14
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 162.30
2018-06-21 Senkou Cross (Golden X) Long at 162.15
2018-06-15 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 161.16
     
Cocoa 2018-07-06 2480.50
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-05-30 from 2421.50 to 2648.50 price 2522.50
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-22 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2508.50
2018-06-04 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Short at 2341.00
2018-05-16 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2726.50
     
Coffee 2018-07-06 111.250
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-30 from 116.450 to 118.725 price 120.300
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-15 Senkou Cross (2018-07-24) Short at 115.200
2018-06-15 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (2018-07-24) Short at 115.200
2018-06-07 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 115.700
     
Copper 2018-07-06 2.813
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-05 from 3.070 to 3.089 price 3.191
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-21 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Short at 3.025
2018-06-19 Kumo Breakout (2018-07-26) Short at 3.046
2018-06-05 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 3.191
     
Cotton 2018-07-06 84.3700
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-05-30 from 80.8500 to 82.9875 price 92.5000
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-02 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 82.9700
2018-06-22 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 85.8100
2018-06-19 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 83.3300
     
Gold 2018-07-06 1254.300
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-05 from 1326.975 to 1336.400 price 1297.500
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-26 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1256.600
2018-06-15 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1274.600
2018-06-11 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1298.900
     
OJuice 2018-07-06 168.4
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-30 from 141.3 to 143.3 price 162.7
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-06 Chikou Cross (2018-05-30) Long at 168.4
2018-04-26 Senkou Cross (2018-05-30) Long at 152.1
2018-04-17 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 145.6
     
Palladium 2018-07-06 947.6
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-05 from 965.2 to 969.5 price 985.7
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-25 Senkou Cross (2018-07-30) Short at 935.4
2018-06-19 Kumo Breakout (2018-07-30) Short at 960.3
2018-05-31 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 981.7
     
Silver 2018-07-06 15.981
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-06 from 16.441 to 16.600 price 16.642
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-26 Senkou Cross (2018-07-31) Short at 16.275
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (2018-07-31) Short at 16.308
2018-06-19 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 16.303
     
Soybeans 2018-07-06 877.5
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-30 from 1029.9 to 1033.0 price 1024.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-06 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 995.5
2018-06-04 Senkou Cross (Death X) Short at 1002.2
2018-06-04 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1002.2
     
Sugar 2018-07-06 11.51
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-30 from 11.89 to 12.61 price 12.60
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-02 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 11.56
2018-06-26 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 12.12
2018-06-08 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 12.25
     
WTI 2018-07-06 73.800
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-06-03 from 64.755 to 66.900 price 65.770
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-29 Senkou Cross (2018-08-06) Long at 74.150
2018-06-29 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (2018-08-06) Long at 74.150
2018-06-27 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 72.760
     
EURJPY 2018-07-06 129.750
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-06-06 from 131.230 to 131.815 price 129.720
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-05 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 129.330
2018-06-29 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 129.330
2018-06-29 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 129.330
     
EURUSD 2018-07-06 1.17470
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 1.23170 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-05-31 from 1.22312 to 1.22665 price 1.16920
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-02 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1.16410
2018-06-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1.15540
2018-06-26 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1.16470
     

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