As usual the weather backcast contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

The trend for uncertainty continues: 15 signals in 11 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe) were triggered during last week:

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

Secretly the situation in the major indices reversed during last 4 weeks. US indices are now trending upwards, while the rest of the world is going sideways (or even down in the case of SMI). While the currencies EUR/JPY and EUR/USD are still technically within a valid downtrend, they stabilized during last week (on a pretty low level, though). Maybe another downmove is ahead? Gold has now lost almost 10% since April´s high, the momentum looks still pretty strong. The Silver chart leaves me clueless... Silver is oscillating within a roughly 10% sideways range with pretty rough moves, indicating a high volatility. Most signals in this period were either false ones, or way to late to create any gains. Turning the integrated ADX filter on (which is off for this weekly summaries) removes most of this noise- at the cost of filtering some good signals for the remaining markets. Tough tradeoff, again. For all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!

All STRONG signals of the 22nd week 2018, ordered by symbols:

+------------+-----------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| date       | symbol    | name          | type  | amp_info          | price_quote  |
+------------+-----------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| 2018-06-21 | BuFu      | Senkou Cross  | long  | 2018-07-26        |   162.150000 |
| 2018-06-22 | Cocoa     | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X           |  2508.500000 |
| 2018-06-19 | Copper    | Chikou Cross  | short | 2018-05-20        |     3.046000 |
| 2018-06-19 | Copper    | Kumo breakout | short | from rising Kumo  |     3.046000 |
| 2018-06-21 | Copper    | Senkou Cross  | short | 2018-07-26        |     3.025000 |
| 2018-06-22 | Cotton    | Kumo breakout | long  | from rising Kumo  |    85.810000 |
| 2018-06-19 | Cotton    | Kumo breakout | short | from rising Kumo  |    83.330000 |
| 2018-06-19 | EURJPY    | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X           |   127.550000 |
| 2018-06-19 | HSI       | Senkou Cross  | short | 2018-07-24        | 29468.200000 |
| 2018-06-19 | Palladium | Kumo breakout | short | from rising Kumo  |   960.300000 |
| 2018-06-19 | Palladium | Chikou Cross  | short | 2018-05-20        |   960.300000 |
| 2018-06-19 | Silver    | Kumo breakout | short | from falling Kumo |    16.303000 |
| 2018-06-19 | Silver    | Chikou Cross  | short | 2018-05-20        |    16.303000 |
| 2018-06-21 | STOXX50E  | Kumo breakout | short | from rising Kumo  |  3403.510000 |
| 2018-06-21 | WTI       | Kumo breakout | short | from rising Kumo  |    65.540000 |
+------------+-----------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+

Below is the gallery for the charts:

  • BuFu_lightBuFu_light
  • Cocoa_lightCocoa_light
  • Coffee_lightCoffee_light
  • Copper_lightCopper_light
  • Cotton_lightCotton_light
  • DAX_lightDAX_light
  • DJI_lightDJI_light
  • DJTransp_lightDJTransp_light
  • EURJPY_lightEURJPY_light
  • EURUSD_lightEURUSD_light
  • Gold_lightGold_light
  • HSI_lightHSI_light
  • N225_lightN225_light
  • OJuice_lightOJuice_light
  • Palladium_lightPalladium_light
  • SMI_lightSMI_light
  • SPX_lightSPX_light
  • STOXX50E_lightSTOXX50E_light
  • Silver_lightSilver_light
  • Soybeans_lightSoybeans_light
  • Sugar_lightSugar_light
  • WTI_lightWTI_light

Simple Image Gallery Extended

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

  • Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
  • ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
  • ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
  • SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
  • SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!

DAX 2018-06-22 12579.72
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 12579.72 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-05-16 from 12071.06 to 12651.73 price 12996.33
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-15 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 13010.55
2018-06-14 Chikou Cross (2018-05-08) Long at 13107.10
2018-05-30 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 12783.76
     
DJI 2018-06-22 24580.89
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-05-16 from 24190.11 to 24980.62 price 24768.93
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-01 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 24635.21
2018-05-30 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 24667.78
2018-05-29 Chikou Cross (2018-04-20) Short at 24361.45
     
DJTransp 2018-06-22 10773.2
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-16 from 10349.3 to 10506.8 price 10702.5
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-05-14 Senkou Cross (2018-06-20) Long at 10663.2
2018-05-10 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 10605.8
2018-05-02 Chikou Cross (2018-03-26) Short at 10285.9
     
HSI 2018-06-22 29338.7
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-15 from 30675.5 to 31306.7 price 31152.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-19 Senkou Cross (2018-07-24) Short at 29468.2
2018-06-15 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 30309.5
2018-06-08 Senkou Cross (2018-07-16) Long at 30958.2
     
N225 2018-06-22 22516.8
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-05-17 from 21209.6 to 22238.4 price 22838.4
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-12 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 22878.3
2018-06-05 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 22539.5
2018-05-01 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 22508.0
     
STOXX50E 2018-06-22 3441.60
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 3441.60 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-05-17 from 3355.95 to 3457.17 price 3592.18
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-21 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 3403.51
2018-04-26 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 3506.03
2018-04-23 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 3513.06
     
SMI 2018-06-22 8616.6
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-16 from 8694.1 to 9058.8 price 8973.9
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-05-31 Senkou Cross (2018-07-05) Short at 8457.0
2018-05-29 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 8637.2
2018-05-28 Chikou Cross (2018-04-17) Short at 8775.5
     
SPX 2018-06-22 2754.88
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-16 from 2645.40 to 2702.78 price 2722.46
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-05-17 Senkou Cross (2018-06-24) Long at 2720.13
2018-05-10 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2723.07
2018-05-08 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2671.92
     
BuFu 2018-06-22 162.10
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-17 from 158.82 to 158.92 price 157.87
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-21 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Long at 162.15
2018-06-15 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 161.16
2018-05-21 Senkou Cross (2018-06-25) Long at 159.39
     
Cocoa 2018-06-22 2508.50
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-05-16 from 2290.50 to 2510.50 price 2726.50
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-22 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2508.50
2018-06-04 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 2341.00
2018-05-16 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2726.50
     
Coffee 2018-06-22 113.850
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-05-16 from 118.345 to 120.900 price 113.250
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-15 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 115.200
2018-06-15 Senkou Cross (2018-07-22) Short at 115.200
2018-06-07 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 115.700
     
Copper 2018-06-22 3.033
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-23 from 3.080 to 3.098 price 3.071
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-21 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Short at 3.025
2018-06-19 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 3.046
2018-06-19 Chikou Cross (2018-05-20) Short at 3.046
     
Cotton 2018-06-22 85.8100
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-16 from 80.8500 to 81.8850 price 84.3600
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-22 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 85.8100
2018-06-19 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 83.3300
2018-06-06 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 90.9600
     
Gold 2018-06-22 1267.400
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-23 from 1336.500 to 1344.900 price 1294.300
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-15 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1274.600
2018-06-11 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1298.900
2018-04-30 Senkou Cross (2018-06-01) Short at 1316.200
     
OJuice 2018-06-22 160.7
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-05-16 from 139.0 to 144.0 price 170.1
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-26 Senkou Cross (2018-06-04) Long at 152.1
2018-04-17 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 145.6
2018-03-16 Senkou Cross (2018-04-24) Short at 138.3
     
Palladium 2018-06-22 946.4
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-23 from 975.5 to 985.9 price 975.6
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-19 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 960.3
2018-06-19 Chikou Cross (2018-05-20) Short at 960.3
2018-05-31 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 981.7
     
Silver 2018-06-22 16.439
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span below kumo at 16.439
Kumo on 2018-05-23 from 16.625 to 16.761 price 16.485
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-19 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 16.303
2018-06-19 Chikou Cross (2018-05-20) Short at 16.303
2018-06-12 Senkou Cross (2018-07-16) Long at 16.870
     
Soybeans 2018-06-22 896.5
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-18 from 1025.1 to 1025.4 price 998.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-06 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 995.5
2018-06-04 Senkou Cross (2018-07-09) Short at 1002.2
2018-06-04 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1002.2
     
Sugar 2018-06-22 12.05
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 12.05 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-05-16 from 12.53 to 13.00 price 11.61
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-08 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 12.25
2018-06-08 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 12.25
2018-05-31 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 12.79
     
WTI 2018-06-22 68.580
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 68.580 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-05-22 from 63.880 to 65.533 price 72.170
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-21 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 65.540
2018-06-15 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 65.060
2018-06-10 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 65.540
     
EURJPY 2018-06-22 128.190
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-23 from 131.490 to 133.080 price 128.660
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-19 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 127.550
2018-05-14 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 130.790
2018-05-09 Senkou Cross (2018-06-11) Short at 130.050
     
EURUSD 2018-06-22 1.16570
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-05-17 from 1.23415 to 1.23550 price 1.17950
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-14 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1.15690
2018-06-12 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1.17450
2018-04-24 Senkou Cross (2018-05-25) Short at 1.22320

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