As usual the weather backcast contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

The 16h week triggered 13 signals in 10 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) has already begun. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.

As usual, I start with the indices. When looking at the charts it seems that most of them try to end the sideway movement. As I wrote last week, the European ones seem to do slightly better at the moment: DAX worked it´s way halfway through kumo (which will mean it enters an uptrend if leaving the upper cloud boundary behind), EUROSTOXX already touched the upper border. US indices' direction still remains unclear, I´d suggest to wait until it becomes clearer. The very thin cloud unfortunately makes false signals more likely to occur. Which is a good bridge to talk about EUR/USD: sideways channel, trend following system = no good. EUR/JPY somewhat better, at least it doesn't produce one false signal after another. Silver now is back into an uptrend, with a huge candle breaking kumo. Within the rest of the commodities you can find some nice text-book examples of up- and downtrends. For all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!

All STRONG signals of the 16th week 2018, ordered by symbols:

+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| date       | symbol   | name               | type  | amp_info          | price_quote  |
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| 2018-04-16 | BuFu     | Kumo breakout      | short | from falling Kumo |   159.150000 |
| 2018-04-20 | Cocoa    | Tenkan/Kijun Cross | long  | Golden X          |  2729.000000 |
| 2018-04-18 | DJTransp | Kumo breakout      | long  | from falling Kumo | 10770.200000 |
| 2018-04-18 | DJTransp | Senkou Cross       | long  | 2018-05-23        | 10770.200000 |
| 2018-04-19 | EURUSD   | Tenkan/Kijun Cross | long  | Golden X          |     1.234600 |
| 2018-04-16 | EURUSD   | Kumo breakout      | long  | from rising Kumo  |     1.238000 |
| 2018-04-16 | EURUSD   | Kijun Cross        | long  | Golden X          |     1.238000 |
| 2018-04-16 | HSI      | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X           | 30315.600000 |
| 2018-04-17 | OJuice   | Kumo breakout      | long  | from rising Kumo  |   145.600000 |
| 2018-04-18 | Silver   | Kumo breakout      | long  | from falling Kumo |    17.231000 |
| 2018-04-16 | SMI      | Kijun Cross        | short | Death X           |  8726.500000 |
| 2018-04-17 | Soybeans | Kumo breakout      | long  | from rising Kumo  |  1046.000000 |
| 2018-04-19 | SPX      | Kumo breakout      | short | from falling Kumo |  2693.130000 |
+------------+----------+--------------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+

With spring knocking at the door, I switched the charts back to the light theme. Feel free to drop a comment or a mail :)

  • BuFu_lightBuFu_light
  • Cocoa_lightCocoa_light
  • Coffee_lightCoffee_light
  • Copper_lightCopper_light
  • Cotton_lightCotton_light
  • DAX_lightDAX_light
  • DJI_lightDJI_light
  • DJTransp_lightDJTransp_light
  • EURJPY_lightEURJPY_light
  • EURUSD_lightEURUSD_light
  • Gold_lightGold_light
  • HSI_lightHSI_light
  • N225_lightN225_light
  • OJuice_lightOJuice_light
  • Palladium_lightPalladium_light
  • SMI_lightSMI_light
  • SPX_lightSPX_light
  • STOXX50E_lightSTOXX50E_light
  • Silver_lightSilver_light
  • Soybeans_lightSoybeans_light
  • Sugar_lightSugar_light
  • WTI_lightWTI_light

Simple Image Gallery Extended

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

  • Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
  • ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
  • ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
  • SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
  • SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!

DAX 2018-04-20 12540.50
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 12540.50 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-03-13 from 13104.65 to 13109.67 price 12221.03
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-03-23 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 11886.31
2018-03-22 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 12100.08
2018-03-22 Chikou Cross (2018-02-14) Short at 12100.08
     
DJI 2018-04-20 24462.94
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-14 from 24988.64 to 25270.30 price 24758.12
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-13 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 24360.14
2018-04-11 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 24189.45
2018-04-06 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 23932.76
     
DJTransp 2018-04-20 10578.9
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 10578.9 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-03-14 from 10440.0 to 10845.0 price 10573.5
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-18 Senkou Cross (2018-05-23) Long at 10770.2
2018-04-18 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 10770.2
2018-03-22 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 10353.5
     
HSI 2018-04-20 30418.3
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-12 from 30809.5 to 32092.0 price 31594.3
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-16 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 30315.6
2018-04-06 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 29844.9
2018-03-21 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 31414.5
     
N225 2018-04-20 22162.2
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 22162.2 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-03-14 from 23124.3 to 23380.2 price 21777.3
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-02 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 21388.6
2018-03-23 Chikou Cross (2018-02-14) Short at 20617.9
2018-03-19 Chikou Cross (2018-02-08) Short at 21480.9
     
STOXX50E 2018-04-20 3494.20
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 3494.20 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-03-13 from 3576.45 to 3578.23 price 3397.35
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-03-22 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 3348.19
2018-03-22 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 3348.19
2018-03-22 Chikou Cross (2018-02-14) Short at 3348.19
     
SMI 2018-04-20 8807.8
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-13 from 9350.9 to 9350.9 price 8880.9
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-16 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 8726.5
2018-03-22 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 8637.9
2018-03-22 Chikou Cross (2018-02-14) Short at 8637.9
     
SPX 2018-04-20 2670.14
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-14 from 2725.56 to 2755.52 price 2749.48
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-19 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 2693.13
2018-03-23 Senkou Cross (2018-04-30) Short at 2588.26
2018-03-22 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 2643.69
     
BuFu 2018-04-20 158.13
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-03-13 from 159.53 to 160.77 price 157.47
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-16 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 159.15
2018-04-09 Chikou Cross (2018-02-28) Short at 159.30
2018-03-09 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 156.98
     
Cocoa 2018-04-20 2729.00
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-14 from 1967.75 to 1983.25 price 2545.00
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-20 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2729.00
2018-04-11 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2539.00
2018-02-13 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2049.50
     
Coffee 2018-04-20 115.750
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-14 from 124.050 to 124.125 price 121.120
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-03-28 Chikou Cross (2018-02-20) Short at 117.750
2018-03-15 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 117.650
2018-03-02 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 120.350
     
Copper 2018-04-20 3.131
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 3.131 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-03-15 from 3.112 to 3.143 price 3.111
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-06 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 3.054
2018-03-08 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 3.058
2018-02-28 Senkou Cross (2018-04-05) Short at 3.107
     
Cotton 2018-04-20 85.6000
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-14 from 77.0400 to 80.1000 price 83.3400
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-12 Chikou Cross (2018-03-06) Long at 83.8400
2018-04-05 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 82.6300
2018-03-05 Senkou Cross (2018-04-11) Long at 84.8600
     
Gold 2018-04-20 1338.300
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-16 from 1304.400 to 1335.450 price 1312.300
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-09 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 1340.100
2018-04-03 Senkou Cross (2018-05-08) Long at 1337.300
2018-04-02 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 1346.900
     
OJuice 2018-04-20 143.2
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-03-14 from 144.7 to 149.7 price 139.4
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-17 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 145.6
2018-03-16 Senkou Cross (2018-04-23) Short at 138.3
2018-03-07 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 141.6
     
Palladium 2018-04-20 1019.2
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 1019.2 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-03-20 from 1014.7 to 1043.3 price 976.4
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-03-15 Chikou Cross (2018-02-13) Short at 982.1
2018-03-01 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 985.8
2018-02-27 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 1034.4
     
Silver 2018-04-20 17.147
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-20 from 16.729 to 16.877 price 16.125
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-18 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 17.231
2018-04-12 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 16.443
2018-04-12 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 16.443
     
Soybeans 2018-04-20 1029.5
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 1029.5 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-03-14 from 979.7 to 980.4 price 1031.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-17 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 1046.0
2018-02-06 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 987.0
2018-02-06 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 987.0
     
Sugar 2018-04-20 11.64
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-14 from 13.84 to 14.26 price 12.76
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-03-07 Chikou Cross (2018-01-29) Short at 12.79
2018-02-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 13.01
2018-02-27 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 13.01
     
WTI 2018-04-20 68.380
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-03-16 from 61.375 to 62.050 price 62.340
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-09 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 63.420
2018-04-09 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 63.420
2018-04-06 Kumo breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 62.060
     
EURJPY 2018-04-20 132.300
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 132.300 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-03-15 from 134.625 to 135.480 price 130.850
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-02 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 130.270
2018-03-27 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 130.660
2018-02-15 Senkou Cross (2018-03-23) Short at 132.720
     
EURUSD 2018-04-20 1.22880
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 1.22880 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-03-21 from 1.21275 to 1.22955 price 1.23380
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-04-19 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 1.23460
2018-04-16 Kumo breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 1.23800
2018-04-16 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 1.23800
     

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